Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 5 yards (54-S.Williams). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.97 EP
57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model