Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Cleveland Browns 16

(14:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CLE 26, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.16 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model