4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.62 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model