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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to TB 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.28 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model