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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 – Cleveland Browns 23

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 20, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.85 EP