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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.88 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP