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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 34 for no gain (95-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model