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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 32

Cleveland Browns 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model