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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 16

Cleveland Browns 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 25-A.Szmyt 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.11 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model