Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- QB edge to GB: Geno Smith (NYJ) -0.148 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.204 EPA/dropback
- GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- GB defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 2
GB
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 09:40 TD GB (9:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 32-M.Lloyd for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – NYJ 0
- Q2 06:08 TD NYJ (6:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – NYJ 6
- Q3 02:35 TD NYJ (2:35) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-L.Van Ness]. PENALTY on NYJ-7-G.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 7 – NYJ 13
- Q4 11:08 FG NYJ (11:08) 19-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. GB 7 – NYJ 17
- Q4 08:02 TD GB (8:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – NYJ 17
- Q4 03:03 FG GB (3:03) 28-T.Smack 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 17 – NYJ 17
- Q5 05:26 FG GB (5:26) 28-T.Smack 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 20 – NYJ 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(13:34) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to NYJ 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-I.Williams MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at NYJ 2. 37-Q.Stiggers to NYJ 5 for 3 yards (87-J.Sturdivant; 59-T.Hopper).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 25%
(7:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to GB 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore to GB 16 for 5 yards (47-A.Beck). PENALTY on GB-36-K.Hadden, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at GB 15.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 GB 4th & 15 at the 97Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(5:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to NYJ 37, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 45 for 8 yards (90-L.Van Ness). PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 25%
(2:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. ** Injury Update: GB-59-T.Hopper has returned to the game.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(1:51) 19-D.Whelan punts 58 yards to NYJ 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-I.Williams MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at NYJ 18. PENALTY on NYJ-18-I.Williams, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(:14) 14-A.McNamara punts 58 yards to GB 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-82-A.Smith.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 GB 4th & 13 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(4:09) 19-D.Whelan punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on NYJ-55-B.McGregor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 36%
(12:34) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to GB 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. PENALTY on GB-51-D.Dennis-Sutton, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at GB 6.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(7:36) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to NYJ 30, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 60%
(:59) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to NYJ 19, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-27-K.Oladapo.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(11:08) 19-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 69 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(4:49) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to GB 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 63 yards (82-A.Smith).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 16 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%
(3:03) 28-T.Smack 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 50 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 32%
(1:20) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 50 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 32%
(:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 45 for -5 yards (52-K.Enagbare).
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