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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 7 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(:59) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to NYJ 19, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-27-K.Oladapo.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.76 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP