Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 19-D.Whelan punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on NYJ-55-B.McGregor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.14 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -2.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model