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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 17 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 45 for -5 yards (52-K.Enagbare).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP