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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 76

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 19-D.Whelan punts 58 yards to NYJ 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-I.Williams MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at NYJ 18. PENALTY on NYJ-18-I.Williams, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.78 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model