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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 48

New York Jets 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to GB 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. PENALTY on GB-51-D.Dennis-Sutton, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at GB 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model