Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 97

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to NYJ 37, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 45 for 8 yards (90-L.Van Ness). PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.

The Three Options

GO -3.84 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.24 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 97, worth -6.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model