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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 53

New York Jets 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. ** Injury Update: GB-59-T.Hopper has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model