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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 14 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 28-T.Smack 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.15 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model