Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 94

New York Jets 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(:14) 14-A.McNamara punts 58 yards to GB 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-82-A.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -3.93 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.63 EP
72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model