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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to NYJ 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-I.Williams MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at NYJ 2. 37-Q.Stiggers to NYJ 5 for 3 yards (87-J.Sturdivant; 59-T.Hopper).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.82 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model