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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 14

New York Jets 14 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 19-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.39 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model