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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 53

New York Jets 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to GB 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore to GB 16 for 5 yards (47-A.Beck). PENALTY on GB-36-K.Hadden, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at GB 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model