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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to NYJ 30, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model