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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 50
New York Jets 17 – Green Bay Packers 17
What Actually Happened
(1:20) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness).
The Three Options
GO
+0.67 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.69 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.46 EP
KICK
-0.29 EP
- 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT
-0.33 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
