Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 69

New York Jets 17 – Green Bay Packers 14

(4:49) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to GB 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 63 yards (82-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.23 EP
48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model