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Seattle Seahawks

2-0 HC Mike Macdonald
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Arizona Cardinals

1-1 HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 16:25 ET State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

SEA
66.4%
ARI
33.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA on 4 more days rest than ARI
  • ARI offense: -0.007 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.000 vs Drew Lock (SEA) -0.055 EPA/dropback (SEA starting Drew Lock in place of Sam Darnold)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SEA 28 21–35
–
ARI 21 14–28
Projected margin: SEA by 7 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

SEA

Sam Darnold QB Out Glute
Ty Okada S Out Hamstring
Anthony Bradford G Out Knee
Nick Emmanwori S Questionable Ankle

ARI

Garrett Williams CB Out Achilles
Isaac Seumalo G Questionable Shoulder
Andrew Billings DT Questionable Knee
Roy Lopez DT Questionable Groin
Max Melton CB Questionable Ankle
Isaiah Adams G Questionable Knee
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 31
–
ARI 7

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:38 TD SEA (12:38) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – ARI 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD ARI (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – ARI 6
  • Q3 12:31 TD SEA (12:31) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – ARI 7
  • Q3 06:52 FG SEA (6:52) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – ARI 7
  • Q4 12:44 TD SEA (12:44) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – ARI 7
  • Q4 01:15 TD SEA (1:15) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – ARI 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 40%

    (13:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 35 yards to SEA 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by ARI-84-E.Higgins.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:52) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to SEA 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ARI 39, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 45%

    (12:17) 12-B.Gillikin punts 31 yards to SEA 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%

    (7:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ARI 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-31-W.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at ARI 6.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (5:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to SEA 40, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at ARI 46 for 14 yards (43-K.Sharar). PENALTY on ARI-43-K.Sharar, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 46.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (1:16) 55-O.Oluwatimi and 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson up the middle to ARI 2 for -1 yards (28-A.Wingard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to SEA 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 26 for 3 yards (25-Z.Collins; 89-H.Long).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 40%

    (:01) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock sacked at SEA 35 for -16 yards (3-B.Baker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (6:52) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:20) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to SEA 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. Penalty on SEA-1-J.Neal, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at SEA 20. Penalty on ARI-86-J.Brooks, Fair Catch Interference, offsetting.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SEA 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at SEA 30 for 12 yards (0-C.Simon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (1:15) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →