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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 12-B.Gillikin punts 31 yards to SEA 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.07 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP