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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 1

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 55-O.Oluwatimi and 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson up the middle to ARI 2 for -1 yards (28-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO +3.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model