4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 12-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to SEA 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.12 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model