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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model