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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to SEA 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. Penalty on SEA-1-J.Neal, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at SEA 20. Penalty on ARI-86-J.Brooks, Fair Catch Interference, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.76 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model