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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 89

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to SEA 40, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at ARI 46 for 14 yards (43-K.Sharar). PENALTY on ARI-43-K.Sharar, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 46.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.21 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 89, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP