4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 90

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ARI 39, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 90, worth -5.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model