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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to SEA 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 26 for 3 yards (25-Z.Collins; 89-H.Long).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.30 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model