4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 2

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 2, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model