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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 49

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 35 yards to SEA 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by ARI-84-E.Higgins.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.45 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP