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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ARI 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-31-W.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at ARI 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model