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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock sacked at SEA 35 for -16 yards (3-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.75 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP