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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 1

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:15) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.39 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model