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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SEA 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at SEA 30 for 12 yards (0-C.Simon).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model