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Minnesota Vikings

2-0 HC Kevin O'Connell
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Chicago Bears

1-1 HC Ben Johnson
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 13:00 ET Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

MIN
34.3%
CHI
65.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.164 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Caleb Williams (CHI) +0.102 vs Carson Wentz (MIN) -0.003 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Carson Wentz in place of Kyler Murray)
  • CHI defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21 14–28
–
CHI 24 17–31
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIN

Kyler Murray QB Out Concussion
Jauan Jennings WR Out Not injury related - personal matter
Brian O'Neill T Questionable Knee

CHI

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 9
–
CHI 3

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 33 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:08 FG MIN (11:08) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. MIN 3 – CHI 0
  • Q1 05:08 FG CHI (5:08) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor. MIN 3 – CHI 3
  • Q2 08:23 FG MIN (8:23) 16-W.Reichard 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. MIN 6 – CHI 3
  • Q4 01:12 FG MIN (1:12) 16-W.Reichard 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. MIN 9 – CHI 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (11:08) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 76%

    (5:08) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (:11) 19-B.Thorson punts 46 yards to CHI 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:14) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to MIN 36, Center-45-B.Gardner, downed by CHI-38-S.Thomas.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 74%

    (10:40) 11-C.Wentz right guard to CHI 31 for 2 yards (90-N.Gallimore).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (8:23) 16-W.Reichard 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 74%

    (3:31) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift to MIN 30 for 3 yards (22-H.Smith). Minnesota challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:34) 19-B.Thorson punts 62 yards to CHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 14-K.Raymond ran ob at CHI 34 for 24 yards (42-A.DePaola).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:40) 19-B.Thorson punts 56 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 63 yards to MIN 3, Center-45-B.Gardner. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIN 14 for 11 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:49) 19-B.Thorson punts 41 yards to CHI 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 30 for 6 yards (32-C.Chambliss; 29-Jac.Thomas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:56) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to MIN 12, Center-45-B.Gardner, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:04) 19-B.Thorson punts 46 yards to CHI 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 14-K.Raymond ran ob at CHI 33 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (8:30) 25-K.Monangai right guard to MIN 6 for 2 yards (95-C.Banks; 51-B.Cashman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (6:26) 8-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (2-I.Rodgers), Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-19-T.Taylor at MIN 12.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (1:12) 16-W.Reichard 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.91 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (:01) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner).

    See the full breakdown →