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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 19-B.Thorson punts 41 yards to CHI 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 30 for 6 yards (32-C.Chambliss; 29-Jac.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.61 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model