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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 19-B.Thorson punts 46 yards to CHI 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 14-K.Raymond ran ob at CHI 33 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.77 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP