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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 33

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(3:31) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 4-D.Swift to MIN 30 for 3 yards (22-H.Smith). Minnesota challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model