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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 5

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 8-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is BLOCKED (2-I.Rodgers), Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-19-T.Taylor at MIN 12.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 5, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP