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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 66

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 63 yards to MIN 3, Center-45-B.Gardner. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIN 14 for 11 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.00 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model