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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:11) 19-B.Thorson punts 46 yards to CHI 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.04 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP