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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 19-B.Thorson punts 56 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.40 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model