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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 12

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +1.76 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth +0.04 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.91 EP