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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 31

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 16-W.Reichard 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.30 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model